Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and by Victor Zarnowitz

By Victor Zarnowitz

This quantity offers the main entire assortment to be had of the paintings of Victor Zarnowitz, a pace-setter within the examine of industrial cycles, progress, inflation, and forecasting..With attribute perception, Zarnowitz examines theories of the company cycle, together with Keynesian and financial theories and newer rational expectation and actual enterprise cycle theories. He additionally measures developments and cycles in fiscal task; evaluates the functionality of prime symptoms and their composite measures; surveys forecasting instruments and function of commercial and educational economists; discusses ancient adjustments within the nature and assets of commercial cycles; and analyzes how effectively forecasting agencies and economists are expecting such key monetary variables as rates of interest and inflation.

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Extra resources for Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting

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Manufacturing suffered strong setbacks from intensive foreign competition aided by a massive appreciation of the dollar. Yet the expansion that began in 1982 endured because of the prevalence of gains elsewhere in the economy. Most sectoral disturbances are much smaller, more varied, and localized, and it is reasonable to think of their effects as canceling each other out across markets within fairly short periods of time. But this argument is not entirely compelling, and there is certainly much more scope for useful research in studying disaggregate systems than in dealing with "representative agent" models.

2. Two sets of writings should be mentioned in this context, namely, the theories of the new radical economists and those embodied in some of the recent "disequilibrium" models. For summaries or surveys, see Sherman 1976; Malinvaud 1977; and Drazen 1980. Also, the early mathematical models and the more recent theories of the "political business cycle". receive little attention in the present paper; monographs surveying this literature are Rau 1974; Gapinski 1982; and Mullineux 1984. 1 The Overall Aspects and Varying Dimensions of Business Cycles The term "business cycle," is a misnomer insofar as no unique periodicities are involved, but its wide acceptance reflects the recognition of important regularities of long standing.

The deceleration of final demand in the latter stages of expansion has been given explanations varying from full-employment ceiling and accelerator effects to cyclical changes in functional income distribution and consumption. The share of labor in national income has a mildly countercyclical pattern because real hourly wages increase somewhat less than output per hour (labor productivity) in expansion, whereas the opposite prevails in contraction. The proportion of consumption is larger in labor income than in property income, which is consistent with the finding that the ratio of total consump4.

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