Complex Systems Approach to Economic Dynamics by Abraham C.-L. Chian

By Abraham C.-L. Chian

Monetary platforms express advanced dynamics evidenced by way of large-amplitude and aperiodic fluctuations in fiscal variables, comparable to foreign currencies premiums and inventory industry costs, indicating that those structures are pushed faraway from the equilibrium. Characterization of the advanced habit of monetary cycles, by means of deciding upon common and abnormal styles and regime switching in monetary time sequence, is the foremost for trend acceptance and forecasting of monetary cycles. Statistical research of inventory markets and foreign currency echange markets has verified the intermittent nature of financial time sequence. A nonlinear version of commercial cycles is ready to simulate intermittency bobbing up from order-chaos and chaos-chaos transitions. This monograph introduces new innovations of volatile periodic orbits and chaotic saddles that are risky constructions embedded in a chaotic attractor, accountable for financial intermittency.

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45). Within the periodic window, two (or more) attractors A1 and A2 coexist, each with its own basin of attraction (Chian et al. 2005). 98312, a period-1 limit cycle for each attractor A1 /A2 is generated via a local saddle-node bifurcation (SNB), which evolves into a small chaotic attractor via a cascade of period-doubling bifurcations. 98765. 2(b), respectively. Note that CA1 and CA2 are symmetric with respect to each other. 98766 MCA 2 x 0 −2 −4 −3 −2 −1 0 x 1 2 3 Fig. 2. 98766 dynamic properties of these two co-existing attractors are identical.

In a classical book, Burns and Mitchell (1946) defined business cycles as “a type of fluctuation found in the aggregate economic activity of nations that organize their work mainly in business enterprises: a cycle consists of expansions, occurring at about the same time in many economic activities, followed by similarly general recessions, contractions, and revivals which merge into the expansion phase of the next cycles”. , intermittent) phases of low-level and highlevel economic activities. 28 3 Type-I Intermittency in Nonlinear Economic Cycles Synchronization and intermittency are ubiquitous phenomena that govern the nonlinear dynamics of complex systems.

66 2 1 0 −6 −5 −4 −3 −2 log10( a − a MC ) Fig. 7. Characteristic intermittency time as a function of the departure from the crisis point, log10 τ versus log10 (a−aM C ). The squares (circles) denote the computed average switching time from the laminar phases related to CA1 (CA2 ) to the bursty phases. 66. 074 (Chian et al. 2006). 3), we see that the decrease of τ with the distance from the critical parameter for the economic crisis-induced intermittency is much faster than the economic type-I intermittency.

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