By Robert Dale; C S Mellish; Michael Zock (eds.)
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In application, L(i,t), usually affects D(i,t) for at least two reasons. First, the line is partially determined by power ratings which reflect the superiority (inferiority) of team i relative to its opponent. Second, game participants are well aware of the spread published on most sport pages and thus know what the fans expect of them. This "fan effect" is very real since the fans indirectly pay the bills. Thus for players and coaches, the line becomes somewhat of a bench mark on which to base their goals.
Moreover, G(i,t) may affect subsequent encounters between teams i and i* at times well beyond t+ 1. One explanation of these effects is as follows. 4. Effects of lagged statistical shocks-as opposed to effects of lagged gambling shocks-on game outcomes leads to additional conjectures. Suppose the S(i,t-'t) affect D(i,t) and are not redundant with the G(i,t-'t). , those of team management and/or players) rather than those of the fans. In the more common case where both G(i,t-'t) and S(i,t-t) affect D(i,t),the implication is that team i is reacting to both its own and the fans' expectations.
Design ofExperiments. Oliver and Boyd: London, 1935. Fisher RA. Statistical Methodsfor Research Workers. Oliver and Boyd: London, 1928. Stevens RT. Operational Test and Evaluation: A Systems Engineering Approach. Wiley: NY, 1979. Reference 5 of Introduction. (Quotation, pp. 90-91) Thorp E. Beat the Dealer. Random House: NY, 1966. Merchant L. The National Football Lottery. Holy, Reinhart and Winston: NY, 1973. Reference 4 ofIntroduction. Fisher, I. "Useful and Harmful Speculation," In Readings in Risk and Risk Taking, C.